#EXPROPRIATION WITHOUT COMPENSATION – MALEMA WILL DRAG CYRIL DOWN WITH HIM

The public fondling between Cyril and Julius is rather sickening.

Even more sickening, however, is the fact that we are looking at the disintegration of the ANC right in front of our eyes, all because Cyril so desperately wants to be the real President of South Africa. In the process, he does not really care whether he gets into bed with Julius or anybody else in the EFF that will bring those 6% voters to the party.

As a result, Cyril publicly, and on more than one occasion said that he wants Julius back in the ANC fold. For now, Julius is playing hard to get – but he does send eye-flattering and lips-pouting messages to Cyril from time to time. Just enough to raise Cyril’s levels of interest. All the while the hardcore ANC comrades must be making several runs to the toilets as something worse than listeriosis rips their substantial guts apart.

While I am sure that Cyril realises that Julius can only spell trouble for the beleaguered ANC, he also seems to think that without Julius’ EFF, the ANC stands a better than even chance to lose the government of South Africa. With that loss of course goes Cyril’s only chance of ever being the real President of South Africa. I think this is a miscalculation.

The problem though is that with the course of action that Malema has now sucked the ANC into around expropriation without land, it might be all too little too late for Cyril. While Cyril enjoyed a brief honeymoon period with the general public and perhaps an ongoing honeymoon within the ANC, the road to 2019 will be a positively horrendous one for the ANC.

The reason for this is that Cyril simply is not in a position to do any of the real substantive things that he said he would deal with. Corruption remains at the core of the ANC’s reason for existence. The Guptas are still roaming the globe on a South African passport. Jacob Zuma is emboldened and made a pivotal part of the ANC’s election machinery in Kwa-Zulu Natal. Cyril gets a 24% increase in salary. He maintains a bloated cabinet.

And now, to make matters worse, he stands quietly by while Julius Malema becomes the poster boy for the ‘expropriation without compensation” debate. Malema is framing the debate – not Cyril. Malema’s EFF is expropriating land without compensation and the ANC is reduced to begging them not to do so. So desperate has Cyril become to put a positive spin on all this madness that he is now even praising Herman Mashaba’s action as Mashaba cleans up the inner city slums of Johannesburg.

Just imagine, Cyril is campaigning in Soweto and he tells the voters there we are not going to take your house but we want to expropriate without compensation the land on which your houses are built. Give us your vote and we will kill the dream of black ownership of land forever. All those thousands of title deeds that were handed out to you a few years ago are now as worthless as used toilet paper or a used condom.

I am not sure how many Sowetans would allow him to finish that train of thought before they hound him out of the township, what I do know is that not a single turkey has ever voted for Christmas.

The inevitable outcome for the ANC in 2019 is that even with the EFF’s 6% it might not be in a position to form a government. The more intelligent strategy would have been for Cyril to try and interest Mmusi – but I hear Mmusi is strictly into heterosexual relationships. So fondling Mmusi (public or private) is not going to help.

Shame about that real presidency Cyril.

BLACKS: MOST UNTRANSFORMED IN SOUTH AFRICA?

As I was reading through all the media coverage and Twitter and Facebook comments around the Davidsonville protests the law of unintended consequences again came to mind.

Its almost like a Murphy’s law for highly intelligent people.

Before 1994 we were all classified as something or the other but mainly as Whites, Africans, Coloureds and Indians. There were also some who were classified as Cape Coloureds and others were classified as Other Coloureds.

Being born in Paarl I was also classified as a Coloured. During those days we had very little time or reason to reflect on where Coloureds came from. We just found ourselves in the space and time where were classified as Coloureds.

I was therefore very surprised when I saw a number of Africans stating in one of the Facebook groups that Coloureds are the result of rapes by White men of Black women. You could have fooled me and I am sure a large number of Coloureds with me.

My question then was why are we still having these very silly comments being made by Africans about Coloureds. Why are Coloureds still displaying racist attitudes against Africans and Indians?

Why are Indians still being vilified by African and Coloured alike.

More worryingly. Why are many Xhosas still harbouring residual animosty towards the Zulus and why are some many Zulus still looking down upon every other tribe or race in South Africa.

This 20 years after the official end of apartheid.

The answer came flashing through my mind.

We are still as untransformed as we were 20 years ago. By “we” I mean all of those of us who are not White.

In fact, the White people was and is the only group that have been consistently pushed to transform. All institutions, government and private are continuously accused of not being transformed or not transformed enough or resisting transformation.

All over the place Whites are being told to take a step back. There are too many whites on the bench. Too many whites in Gauteng and the Western Cape. Too many white attorneys. Too many white lawyers. Too many white accountants etc.

Whites have therefore been compelled to re-examine their own positions. They are regularly being told to repent for the sins of their fathers. Even our President is firmly of the opinion that our problems started with a Dutch man – Jan van Riebeeck.

All this time we Blacks (African, Coloureds and Indians) have been left alone to continue to think that we were ok. We don’t need to transform in our heads. That our racist and tribalist tendencies we had before 1994 need not be jettisoned in favour of a new non-racial, non-tribal, non sexist framework and mindset.

We have not been asked to give anything up of our ingrained indoctrination around who sits where in the pecking order. Now and then we are forced to look upon these things but always from a perspective of we need somebody else to transform so that we can enjoy the benefits of the new South Africa.

So we end up being the least transformed in South Africa in terms of our spatial distribution, our educational facilities, our religious facilities, where we work and where get married and where we get buried. We continue to look at each other as the other, As the “they”, who should change because we have nothing to give up. Instead we should be receiving.

What are the unintended consequences I was talking about above? It is the fact that we have left the racial classification laws on the statute book. The fact that there are so many pieces of legislation and policies that are still predicated on the very classification principles that caused so much hurt and pain in the past.

While there are very good reasons for this, the unintended consequence is that we have not been required to transform ourselves, even for a single moment.

Thus, we have a Davidsonville today.

Russian Nuclear Deal – Our Grandchildren are Going to Curse Us

Ghanaians say their politicians are taking turns in “chopping”. In Nigeria your business plan must always include the “NF”.

In South Africa we seems to be intent on repeating the same mistakes over an over again. We suffer a collective “Groundhog Day”.

The Seriti Commission into our last mega billion rand deal was eventually appointed, not because there was an acknowledged sense in our President that something fishy, but rather because he was facing another defeat in the Constitutional Court.

Then of course there are still the more than 700 allegations against our President around the very same mega billion arms deal that just refuse to die a quiet and undignified death. I am sure somebody somewhere is cursing this democratic order of ours where tapes that were made for private consumption, are now out in the open.

Given all these problems that arose for our President out of the last mega billion deal, one would have thought that he would have made sure he stays as far away as possible from anything that has money attached to it.

Now we hear and read that he has done a trillion rand deal with the Russians for nuclear power stations without even taking his full cabinet into his confidence.

If we look at Medupi alone (where the latest estimates set it at over R50 billion over budget) there is little doubt that we will be looking at several trillions before we get a single megawatt out of these proposed nuclear power stations.

Even today we are buckling under the burden of electricity charges. Imagine how much more expensive electricity is going to be once the Russians start asking for their money back.

It is then that our grandchildren will curse our lack of outrage today.

SA’s education cant be fixed – Privatise it!

South Africa’s education system is broken.

I can hear the howls of indignation, but I have to remain deaf to it because there is too much empirical evidence to show that this indeed is the sad state of affairs that we call basic education in South Africa.

South Africa as a whole is going down the drain fast if we do not fix our education system.

Again I can hear the loud howls of indignation. Once more i tune out this noise as again there is so much empirical evidence that point to the fact that our economy is going to collapse in on itself if we do not get large numbers of appropriately skilled people into our work places. The government’s dream of creating massive employment shall remain just that – a massive pipe dream.

Having dealt with the two fundamental truths around our education system, let me turn to solutions rather than moaning and whinging about the hand that we dealt ourselves.

First we have to accept the evidence that privatized education works better than public education. We just have to look at the number of private education organisations that have sprung up before 1994 and the accelerated pace after 1994. Some of these organisations have even listed on the JSE and they are doing pretty damn well, thank you very much.

They are doing well of course because the black middle class have grown and those whites who were not prepared to see their children being subjected to lowered educational standards in public schools (i am here excluding the so-called model C schools have moved their children into private schools.

Second, we have to accept that public schools are performing poorly not because parents in general cannot pay school fees, or that there is not enough money available to ensure that proper education takes place across the country. We also do not have a shortage of funds to build schools. The Basic Education Ministry has billions of rands every year to take care of all the needs of the children in public schools.

The problem is simply this – there is a disproportionate focus on political and union cushiness at the expense of the ultimate consumer of the education system – the learner. As a result the higher education institutions receive poorly prepared students from especially the black schools. It is no wonder then that such a large number of first year students remain just that – first year students.

My suggestion is that we privatise all public schools.

Every single one of them. Sell them to suitably qualified Black Economic Empowered companies who seriously want to play in the lucrative education field.

The Basic Education Ministry can then play a supervisory role. Like the FSB is doing in the financial services sector.

Of course there will be schools that are not economically viable entities, but those schools can be bundled with financially strong schools. So that anybody who want to buy into the education sector must make a proposal to take over all the schools in a particular region. Invariably this would include poor and rich schools.

In addition the Basic Education Ministry will then provide loans to these education companies to improve infrastructure across all the schools within the portfolio of a particular company. This would also provide an opportunity for communities to become shareholders in the schools within their respective areas.

The benefits could be enormous, this much the individuals (mainly white) who have started school companies have already proven. If one go to most of these new private schools you will see that the majority of the learners are black. Furthermore, just look at the trains in all the major cities in the morning. Pupils from all grades are streaming into city centres from townships to go to schools where they have to pay much higher fees than in the townships.

I believe that if our schools are run as businesses that we will also see much more innovation in teaching methods and technology while it takes place within a broad policy framework laid down by the State.

Another potential positive spin-off is that it might loosen the deadly grip that unions have come to place on the education system.

Now let the howling and debate begin, because we simply cannot afford another 12 years (for those who started grade 1 this year) that can only be characterized as wasted.

South Africa cannot afford it.

 

#Syria – No US interest in the fall of the house of Assad: No Action

It is generally accepted that it was Lord Palmerston who said: “Therefore I say that it is a narrow policy to suppose that this country or that is to be marked out as the eternal ally or the perpetual enemy of England. We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow.” (My underlining and emphasis)

Over time this has been shortened into the notion that countries have no permanent enemies or friends but only permanent interests.

In the modern era this “doctrine” has been illustrated over and over again when nations decide to go to war or to intervene in the affairs of other nations. One of the functions of the United Nations is aimed at making the intervention by one country into the internal affairs of another country a strict no-no.

Of course we have also recently seen that the US and its allies would ignore the UN (as in the 2003 attack on Iraq) or bend a UN resolution to effect regime change (as in the case of Libya).

The USA, probably because it is in the best position to do so, has not wavered to intervene heavily in any country in the world where it has calculated that it would be in its best interest to do so.

It was therefore with increasing bemusement that I have been following the display of extreme reticence on the part of the US to get involved more directly and forcefully in the Syrian disaster. The latest sign of this refusal to be drawn into it without full Congressional support has been President Obama’s request to Congress to delay passing a resolution on military action in Syria.

Of course this comes in the wake of the British Parliament deciding that the United Kingdom will not be part of any coalition that would be seeking to punish President Assad for the supposed chemical weapons attack on his own citizens in Damascus.

As of now only the French seem keen on a military exercise that would supposedly send a strong message that no ruler will be allowed to gas their own citizens and think they would get away with it. The Germans are in election mode and Angela Merkel is not going to jeopardise her chances of being re-elected for a third time on what can only be a disastrous adventure in Syria.

All very puzzling I must say, especially as one would have thought that given the longs standing animosity between the US/Israel alliance on the one hand and the Assad government on the other that it would be in the interests of both to see the back of President Assad.

Turns out that such a superficial analysis would be wrong.

At the same time we have seen the Russians being prepared to go to war in support of the Syrian government in the event that the US and whoever it can get to come into the kraal of the “coalition of the willing” attacked Syrian infrastructure. The Russians have of course consistently stymied any effort at the UN to take stronger action against the Assad government and has been the single biggest supplier of weapons to the Syrian government.

On the other side of the scale we have the governments of Saudi Arabia and Qatar supplying advanced weapons and funds to some of the various groupings that are fighting in Syria. Some times these various groups of “armies” even fight each other for territorial advantage. Increasingly the classic jihadist groups, some of them aligned to Al Qaeda, have inserted and entrenched themselves into the Syrian conflict.

The support of these Gulf countries can at one level be explained by the desire to ensure that a predominantly  Sunni led rebel government be installed in Damascus. In my view there is a much more compelling reason why especially Qatar is taking on such a huge responsibility and has even supplied weapons to the rebels which it was specifically requested not to by the US.

It might also be the reason why the US in particular does not feel compelled that there is a sufficiently strong interest for it to get too deeply embroiled in the Syrian conflict.

I think it is all about gas.

Not the type that was used against the people of Damascus.

But the kind that Qatar produces in huge quantities and that has enabled that tiny country to box way above its weight in the recent conflicts in the Arab world.

While I don’t think that the war in Syria was started over the gas pipe line from Qatar to Europe via Syria, the intractable nature of it and the strong support that Qatar and Saudi Arabia has given to the rebels can be explained by this gas pipe line project.

It also explains the Russian position.

At the moment Russia operates a pipeline that goes into Europe. Another pipeline for Russian gas (the Nabucco Project) will also go via Syria. Russia has established key strategic naval positions at Latakia and Tartus.

Syria was given an opportunity to sign a deal with the Qatari and Saudi Arabian governments for a proposed gas and oil pipe line through Syria to Europe but instead chose to sign with Iran, Iraq and Russia. This, so called “Islamic Pipeline” will have negative effects for Qatar and will also cut Turkey out of this very lucrative gas deal.

It is therefore no coincidence that Russia and Iran have been unstinting in their support of the Syrian government and at the same time Qatar, Turkey and Saudi Arabia have done all they could to help the rebels to topple the Assad government.

As for the Europeans, they are caught in the middle of this dispute with very little ability to do anything about it as even NATO refused to get involved in any military action against Syria. The irony of the matter is the Europeans are most closely interested in get an alternative gas pipe line into Europe because they felt and saw how Russia can literally freeze Europe to death. This is exactly what happened in 2009 when Russia cut off gas flows to Europe as a result of a dispute with Ukraine.

So, while the US have friends as well as enemies involved in this business and the Syrian conflict, it has no real interest in it. The US today is pretty much self sufficient as regards both oil and gas and sees no reason to get involved in a war with Russia over gas pipe lines that may or may not materialize.

While one can criticize President Obama for many things, the one thing that one cannot say about him is that he is stupid.

He is aware of all these calculations and he is in his legacy building phase. In Syria there nothing that will add to his legacy and there is no compelling American interest either.

I suspect there will be very little real American action and this is supported with the speed with which the Russian suggestion that Syrian chemical weapons be brought under international control has been seized up by the White House and John Kerry.

In the end therefore there are “…no eternal allies, and no perpetual enemies , interests are eternal and perpetual…”.

Just a pity for the more than 100 000 Syrians who have already died.

#Egypt coup – really just an #Israeli inspired one?

Picture: cbc-ca

Any one closely following the tragic events in Egypt over the past four weeks would have noticed a constant underlying narrative. The coup was pushed for and lobbied by the Israelis. It is for this reason that the USA has refused to call the walking and quaking duck what it is: a military coup.

This was summed up very succinctly in a recent Guardian article by Muhammad al-Baltaji  when he stated that it is the coup alliance “which conspired with the aid of Arab monarchies in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Jordan, fully supported and lobbied for by Israel and with complicity of the United States of America and its western allies, in order to kill the Egyptian dream and undermine the Arab spring.”

So the story goes like this.

Israel did not like the fact that the Muslim Brotherhood won the elections because the new Egyptian government will tear up the agreements between Israel and Egypt. So they worked tirelessly to influence the Muslim Brotherhood to push for a constitution that gave credence to the fears of those who said there would be “one man, one vote, once only”.

The Israelis also managed to develop a mind control device which caused President Mursi to issue an edict that essentially placed himself above the law and gave him powers to rule by decree. Then the Israelis whipped up popular discontent within Egypt to the point where the military stepped in and gave an ultimatum to the political parties.

Either shape up or shift out the military strong men told the political parties. The political parties chose to ignore the military, believing that true power in Egypt resides within a civilian government. Of course they ignored the Egyptian realities at their peril.

For more than 60 years the military has been at the centre of power and the economy in Egypt and I do not recall a memo from the Generals to the politicians that said they gave up all that power and privilege just because a majority of a minority of the electorate said so.

Any how.

Somehow it was the Israelis, ably supported by their lap dog, the United States of America who used the US$1.5 billion in annual aid to Egypt to convince the Egyptian generals that it is time to show the Muslim Brotherhood who is the boss of them.

And voila!

There is a military coup in July.

Were it but that simple.

Of course to simple (by this I mean ordinary people who do not understand Geo-politics) people it is that simple and they require no other explanation. They march and protest and die in the firm believe that their democracy was stolen by the military at the behest of the Great and Little Satans.

However, dig a little deeper and the picture becomes a lot more complex and nuanced.

Lets go back to the elections that was won by the Muslim Brotherhood.

We all know that the Muslim Brotherhood did not start the initial uprisings in Egypt. This was started by the pro-democracy forces that camped out in Tahrir square and elsewhere in Egypt until they finally managed to get Hosni Mubarak to resign together with his entire government.

Long story short and elections are in the air. The various pro-democracy groups asked for a long period of preparation so that they could get themselves organised into proper political parties, do proper campaigning and stand a reasonable chance of winning.  President Mursi decided then to ignore these requests.

The reason was quite simple.

The Muslim Brotherhood knew that their political wing was the best organised at that stage. It had a long history of undertaking various charitable projects all over Egypt and the poorest of the poor, who also happens to be staunch Muslims knew the Muslim Brotherhood as the party who have been fighting on their side. There was therefore a great likelihood that the majority of voters would vote for the MB.

This was then also indeed what happened, but not without controversy. At the time everybody wanted Egypt to be a success and the Muslim Brotherhood victory in both the Presidential and Parliamentary elections were accepted by all and sundry. Those who argued differently were either politely ignored or shout down.

While they projected themselves as a moderate version of Islam, no sooner did they come into power and they started to show their true colours. Ordinary Egyptians were appalled at the prospect of now being ruled under Sharia law. Those who have enjoyed being Muslim in a secular state was astounded that the freedoms they fought for, were now in danger of being destroyed by a religious dictatorship.

What the Muslim Brotherhood forgot is that less than 10% of the voters turned up for the Shura Council elections. So, while they won 58% of the seats in the Council, in real terms it represented only 3.6 million of the Egyptian people. Hardly a ringing endorsement by the majority of Egyptians.

Be that as it may, they proceeded to ride roughshod over the complaints by the secularists in the Shura Council and the various Muslim Brotherhood spokes people made some pretty serious statements in defence of the inferior position that women and religious minorities would enjoy under the new constitution. When the UN started an initiative to deplore violence against women the “… Ikhwan (Brotherhood), described the UN’s prohibitions against marital rape, and its calls for women’s freedom to travel, work and use contraception without their husband’s permission, as “destructive tools meant to undermine the family as an important institution … subvert the entire society, and drag it to pre-Islamic ignorance“.

When the judiciary started to give President Mursi a hard time, he simply issued decrees that put his actions and decisions above judicial review. Can you imagine President Zuma in South Africa or President Obama being allowed to get away with such authoritarian action. Well the generals in Egypt did not take kindly to this infringement in their domain.

This was the second mistake the Muslim Brotherhood made.

They failed to appreciate the amount of alarm they were causing within the military ranks. If the president could with a stroke of a pen emasculate the judiciary, imagine what else he could think to do. Perhaps issue a decree that nationalise all sectors that were hitherto under the firm control of the military?

I suspect this fear of loosing power and money more than anything else compelled the military to finally step in. They have made their calculation. If the Shura Council was only elected by 6.4 million Egyptians and only 3.6 million Egyptians voted for the Muslim Brotherhood, then there is a more than outside chance that the military can control the process and engineer new elections where the Muslim Brotherhood does not perform as well as before.

Already the other enemies of the Muslim Brotherhood has stepped in and pledged support to the military council in the event that the US and the EU decided to withdraw their financial support. Between Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE they have pledged more than US$12 billion which dwarfs the US$1.5 billion that the US provide on an annual basis.

So, is it all about the Israelis?

I don’t think so.

There is no benefit for Israel in an unstable Egypt. Even the Muslim Brotherhood government very quickly rejected any notion that they would tear up the peace agreement between Israel and Egypt. They followed this up with strong action in the Sinai desert against those elements who thought they had a space to launch attacks against Israel.

My view is that Egyptians should look for the reasons of their current crisis within Egypt and then craft a solution taking into account the objective realities of the country. To blame Israel and the US will simply forestall any real prospects of democracy and peace in this important African giant.

#Zimbabe-MDC: Outprepared, outfoxed and outvoted.

In a few days time the new president of the Republic of Zimbabwe will be sworn it.
He is of course the old president also. By all accounts he is also the oldest African president. I seriously think he would also like to rule for as long as the Queen has been the Queen England.
I am talking of course about Robert Gabriel Mugabe, the President who will be almost 100 years by the time of the next elections. Judging from the recent election performance where 61% of those who managed to vote, voted for him, I have no doubt that even at 95 his people will still vote for him in large numbers.
Given all the time that President Mugabe had to perfect his rule, I am a bit surprised that Mr Tsvangirai at the youthful age of just 61 seriously thought that he had a chance of becoming president while President Mugabe is still alive.
Having followed the debates and arguments and the gnashing of teeth and wringing of hands about the stolen or rigged elections, I have concluded that the MDC only has itself to blame for the embarrassing touching it received at the hands of ZANU(PF) and Mugabe.
Firstly, they were simply unprepared for the elections.
Yes, I will hear you say: Mugabe called the elections unilaterally and before certain key institutions like the media and military were truly transformed.
But look at 2008 I would reply. The conditions in the country was even worse than 2013 and yet the MDC won those elections by all accounts. Even by Mugabe’s counting.
The media, the military, the Zimbabwe Elections Commission, were all fully under the control of ZANU(PF) as they were in 2013. So no difference there for me.
The MDC’s problem is that it forgot to keep its eye on the real target even as they started to live large as the junior partners in a government of national disunity. They thought that they would learn how to run the country for when they finally get to run the country.
In the meantime ZANU(PF) learnt a serious lesson in 2008 and they knew they would not be able to kill people into accepting that their votes counted for nothing. So they did what has been happening in the US for decades. They moved into election mode immediately after the end of the 2008 elections and the formation of the Government of National Unity. As our President Zuma put it so well. They prepared for a harmonised election and an even more harmonious result. One where there will be no violence but all the apparatus of power would work in harmony to ensure that the election results would favour ZANU(PF) on a scale where their can be no doubt (at least in the quarters where it matters) that president Mugabe is truly the hero of his people and all Africans who are still waiting to get their land back from the dispossessors.
The MDC on the other hand was sucked into government and mainly charged with fixing the Zimbabwe economy. While the MDC was playing healer to the economy, Mugabe and the ZANU(PF) was electioneering.
This is where the MDC was outfoxed.
After a disastrous decade of rapid impoverishment and unprecedented migration from a country that is not at war the participation of the MDC in the government created an environment where the economy could be stabilised. The Zimbabwean dollar was put into deep storage as a “strategic retreat” according to Mr Chinamasa the Justice Minister of Zimbabwe).
When I was in Harare in 2011 I found the supermarkets well stocked and the economy was quietly ticking over. While other countries were struggling Zimbabwe was growing at 5% per annum. Even though it is still not high enough to wipe out the economic ravages of the past, it was still growth and nothing to be sneezed.
In February 2013 the Zimbabwe stock exchange was regarded as one of the highest performing stock exchanges, albeit off a modest base.
The Zimbabwe government started aggressive implementation of its indigenisation programme focusing on the mining sector first. Thus addressing two issues that are close to the heart of every Zimbabwean. The MDC often had to complain about the way the land reform and indigenisation policy was being implemented.
Mugabe and his party would often point to this and tell Zimbabweans that the MDC does not have the interest of Zimbabwe at heart but are rather pursuing protection of Western interests.
All the while the economy was slowly getting better and more Zimbabweans were apparently brought into the broader economy even though it was on a small-scale.
If the MDC thought that they were going to be credited for rescuing the Zimbabwe economy, they made a serious miscalculation. The only real narrative that Zimbabweans was hearing is that it was ZANU(PF) who had the true interests of the people at heart and that MDC was playing the role of enemies of progress.
Finally the MDC was simply outvoted.
Not only by the way in which the entire election process was being manipulated, but by the African diplomatic and regional oversight bodies.
Remember the public spat between Mr Tsvangirai and Nkosasana Dlamini-Zuma shortly before the elections? Did he think the AU was going to support him and the MDC after that show of disrespect. Even our own president bowed before Mr Mugabe when he demanded that Lindiwe Zulu be told to shut up. That happened very quickly and very publicly.
The SADC voted equally against the MDC. Even before the vote counting started this body of Southern African states declared the elections fair. Only Botswana raised a dissenting voice. But I think that nobody really sits in fear of Botswana invading Zimbabwe any time soon, even though a huge US military presence is gradually building up there.
So, when the MDC and Mr Tsvangirai consider their chances before the courts they should think carefully. By getting a court order against them they will deepen their own existential crisis.
Do they really think that once ZANU(PF) embarked on their project to take the elections in 2013 that they would not have anticipated and prepared for a court battle?. We have already seen they were well prepared and outfoxed the MDC at every turn. A negative court decision will simply seal the MDC’s fate as an unworthy contender to the crown of ruling party.
It would have been much better for the MDC to boycott the elections than to grant it the veneer of legitimacy that they are now trying so hard to take away. They must remember: the people have spoken even if their voices were artificially enhanced.

 

 

#EFF – Ruling Party 2014?

Picture:Sowetanlive

South Africa is a remarkable and fascinating and frustrating and hopeful country. It has long surpassed the United States of America as the home of the brave at heart and the soft in the head.

Our latest contribution to the universe of ideological hot air is the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), red beret and all.

Variously known as their Commander-in-Chief or President, our own Julius Malema has managed to gather a group of ex –ANC non-luminaries around him in the formation of the EFF. Because I know that my blogs are read by rather prudish individuals I will fight the urge to mention the other renditions of the EFF initials.

Initially I did not pay too much attention to the rumours that Mr Malema was thinking of forming a new political grouping, even less to the idea that this would become a political party. After all, was it not the same gentleman who dramatically declared that his blood is green, black and yellow.

Judging from the colour of his beret in picture above, it seems that somebody finally pointed out to him that actually comrade, our blood is a rather different colour. It actually looks more like…well red!

The EFF was launched on July 11 2013 in Johannesburg and Mr Malema is quoted as saying:“If we resolve that we are going to contest elections, be guaranteed that we will be the government,” A final decision will be made on the weekend of 27 July, but judging from the EFF followers on Twitter and Facebook this is a done deal.

They are already celebrating their victory in 2014 and are telling all of us what we should expect once they are in government. Real “…radical left, anticapitalist and anti-imperialist…” and non-negotiable policies will drive their election campaign. Nationalisation of the mining and financial sectors will be right front and centre and the expropriation of land without compensation will finally become a reality in South Africa.

Of course Mr Malema had his own recent taste of the expropriation (via auction) of his various properties and can therefore speak authoritatively on the subject. He will only face small little challenge: he was paid (or rather SARS) for his properties.

Nonetheless, the EFF is making pretty impressive claims: it will be the government in 2014 and will implement its non-negotiable policies immediately after the swearing in of President Julius Sello Malema.

Their enemies, of whom there are many and powerful ones at that, have scoffed at the very idea that Mr Malema will be able to pull of such an audacious and miraculous act as unseating the African National Congress. As for myself I have learned to scoff at the idea only once I have carefully assessed the foolishness or otherwise thereof.

So what are the EFF’s chances really?

In my view the first thing that their think-tank would have thought about is the fact that they would need to chance the Constitution to do all the “non-negotiable” things. Unless they can do that their policies will remain expressions of intent and nice electioneering material and nothing more than that.

Of course we all know that our Constitution is a pretty solid piece of legislation and in order to change the really important bits and pieces of it a two thirds majority of the members of Parliament is required. Let me make it very clear. It is not just the members who bother to turn up on the day, but all those who are members of parliament will be counted.

The EFF will therefore have to garner more than 70% of all of the votes in the 2014 general election.

What does this mean in real terms?

It means that the ANC will have to suffer complete and utter destruction. In fact they would have to fail to register for the elections and therefore not have the lovely face of our President on the ballot paper.

Of course the DA would also have to suffer an unusual reversal of fortune and shed voters in the Western Cape in particular to the EFF.

In addition every single one of the 3 million or so new voters will have to vote for the EFF.

So I asked myself: What are the chances of this perfect storm happening.

I answered myself: a snow ball’s hope in a 1000 degree Celsius furnace  is about the best odds I would give it.

Not great odds if you are going to raise the expectations of the poor to the levels of hysteria over the next few months.

So, if anybody asks you whether you think EFF will be the ruling party in 2014 then your answer can only be: only if both the ANC and DA are banned from participating in the elections and of course you see little pink elephants and pigs flying in formation over Johannesburg.

Will that happen?

I think not.

#SA land grab a la #Zimbabwe – and then?

By all accounts the Dali Tambo interview with President Mugabe of Zimbabwe had my people of the South positively glued to their seats.

During the broadcast the Twitterverse and Facebook lit up with the pro and antagonists broadcasting their views loud and wide.

The topic which evoked the hottest passions was of course the issue of land and the policy that has been pursued by Zimbabwe’s government to ensure that land, and in particular farmlands were returned to the indigenous population. According to President Mugabe all the hullabaloo over the way in which the process was managed will eventually die down and the Zimbabweans will have their land back.

I suspect here that the President and his government took a very very long term view. And in a sense correctly so.

After all, land goes nowhere. When the farmers (read mainly white) were vigorously persuaded to hand over their farms they could not take the land with them.

It stands to reason therefore that eventually the emotions will subside and the land will be back in the hands of Zimbabweans.

It would seem therefore that the Zimbabwean government has managed to achieve that with which the South African government has struggled for the last 19 years. It has taken the land back from the colonial occupiers of the African land.

In fact President Mugabe is so pleased with what they have achieved that he directly criticized former President Mandela for being too soft on the white people. He is of the view that the late Oliver Tambo, had he been the first president of the country, would have taken a much tougher position with the whites and might even have pursued a strategy of taking the land and other assets from the whites and redistributed that amongst the  previously dispossessed.

In this assertion President Mugabe is supported by a large number of Facebook customers and also some Twitterati.

It would seem therefore that there is good number of people in South Africa, a significant proportion of whom are ANC members, who are strongly of the view that we should proceed without any further hesitation to occupy and take over all white farms and those owned by the big agree-businesses.

I must disclose that I am all for getting land back that had previously been taken away from us. My mother and her siblings are beneficiaries of the government’s land restitution policies and I therefore have no problem with land restitution.

So, let the occupations begin. With gay abandon I should add.

That is if I throw all caution to the wind and let my base animal instincts guide me.

If, however, as I am inclined to do, I spend a few minutes to think through the consequences of a land grab a la Zimbabwe, I am afraid I might have to caution against going the Zimbabwe route.

Three reasons immediately come to mind.

Unlike Zimbabwe, we do not have the stick of a Lancaster House agreement that was soiled and breached by the imperialist Tony Blair. It will therefore be very difficult for the ANC government to justify the launching of the MK Veterans upon the various farms and the wanton killing of any farmer that resist occupation of said farm. Having said this there might be a nexus back to the British on the land issue.

It might therefore be possible to drag the United Kingdom into this issue. Especially now that they have threatened to withdraw donor funding for various projects in South Africa. If I am not too far off, I do recall somebody in DIRCO darkly muttering that the couple of million of pounds that the UK has been giving us is more in the realm of restitution than donor funding.

So there we have it. Britian owe South Africa some payback for the minerals and other benefits it took out of the country during colonial times.

But wait there is more.

There is the 1913 Land Act.

If my history teachers did not waste their time on me I seem to recall that after 1910 South Africa was the Union of South Africa and firmly a British colony. The Land Act was therefore not passed by the National Party government but by the Union government controlled by … yes, the British.

So they are responsible for this intractable problem called the land issue. We should see how we can get the British government to put a few million bob into a fund that can be used to give back the land to the dispossessed masses.

But then we have a second obstacle to a land grab.

Our Constitution…and a government less than enamored with the idea of tampering with our Constitution. Land grabs or forceful and unlawful occupation of anybody’s property is simply a big no-no.

Our third problem is that there is no guarantee that what happened to Zimbabwe would not happen to South Africa. My grandfather, may he rest in peace, told me many years ago that there would come a time when we would need a wheel-barrow full of money to buy a loaf of bread. He was referring to South Africa.

Now this of course is exactly what happened in Zimbabwe. Who can forget the overnight millionaires and billionaires in Zimbabwe. Inflation running rampant. The government of Zimbabwe being bailed out time and time again by the South African government.

Was it not earlier this year that the Zimbabwean government again asked our government for US$100 million?

Apparently there is no money to run their upcoming elections and at one stage the Minister of Finance said there was only US$200 left in the government coffers.

Zimbabwe’s only saving grace is the fact that it has South Africa as its neighbour. Millions of Zimbabweans are here and a month ago the Zimbabwean government effectively asked the South African government to keep them all and preferably give them South African citizenship.

Where will South Africa go to for food, electricity and oil when it has embarked on the Zimbabwe route?

It is of course a fact of history that no country ever learns from the mistakes made by another country because the leaders of countries generally believe themselves much more intelligent than the failing country. I therefore very much doubt that those who wholeheartedly support President Mugabe’s strategy, would have given the above three points any thought.

I would caution them however and ask them: once you have killed the farmers and chased the rest into the sea back to Europe, what then?

 

#Guptagate – my glass half-full view

At last.

Guptagate has come and gone.

The Executive has been exonerated.

The opposition parties had their opportunity to grandstand and show their voters that they are still in parliament.

The pro-ANC and anti-ANC analysts and commentators had their 15 minutes of fame.

But alas. Nobody really looked at the positives that came out of the entire saga.

It was all glass half empty stuff.

I prefer to look at the glass half full side of things.

For the first time in a very long while our dear President had full credible deniability.

The closest he got to the entire debacle was the receipt of the very elaborate wedding invitation.

Not a single person told No. 1 that the Guptas had requested to land their chartered jet at Waterkloof airport.

When our Minister of Defence refused the application she never thought to mention to her boss that she had this silly request from the Guptas.

Ditto our Minister of Transport and our Minister of International Relations and Co-operation.They kept mum about any approach made to them.

Our President was therefore blissfully unaware of all these goings on and thus he was completely dumbstruck when he was told that the GuptaJet landed at the countries biggest airforce base. A condition that prevails up until today as he has not said a word about GuptaGate other than darkly muttering that people should stop dropping names.

Secondly, South Africa is really turning out to be the land of vast opportunity and wealth for immigrants. The Guptas came to South Africa in 1993 and 20 years later they allegedly own senior ANC officials lock stock and two smoking barrels.

Just think how empowering this must be to other immigrants. One just has to look at how African immigrants have taken over the retail business in the townships. Soon they will have their spaza shop  chains all over South Africa. In 20 years they might own Pick n Pay or Shoprite. Then they can own the ruling party lock stock and barrel.

Thirdly, our government officials have really been fully empowered by their political bosses. How else would it be possible for the head of government protocol to convince the Airforce that they should allow a private jet full of wedding guests to land at the premier airforce base of the country. By all accounts he then got the South African Police Service to provide full VIP services and to top it all off, he managed to convince off-duty Metro Police to moonlight as security guards.

I say: Give that man a Bell’s if he was not already given a few boxes of much more expensive single malts.

So all in all I think South Africa came out pretty well from the experience.

I am now waiting for the wedding of the niece of those three Somali brothers who own a spaza shop  in Paarl and who in 20 years time will own Pick n Pay.

I have no doubt we will extend the same courtesies to them and let their chartered jets all land at Wingfield Airforce base for the wedding festivities at Ratanga Junction.